Navigating Uncertainty: The Road to the 1st Bangsamoro Parliamentary Election
As we approach the 1st Bangsamoro Parliamentary Election scheduled for March 30, 2026, the political landscape remains uncertain. The Commission on Elections (Comelec) has made significant strides to solidify the democratic process in the Bangsamoro region. However, several critical issues threaten the integrity and timeliness of these elections.
The Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) is at a pivotal moment. Currently, five bills have been filed regarding electoral districting:
1. Parliament Bill No. 403 : The first new districting bill since the Supreme Court ruling that voided previous laws, proposing 32 single-member parliamentary districts.
2. Parliament Bill No. 407 : An alternative districting proposal from lawmakers affiliated with the MILF, which also suggests 32 single-member districts with a specific layout.
3. Parliament Bill No. 408 : Another alternative from lawmakers connected to the MNLF-Misuari group, proposing 32 districts with different boundary configurations.
4. Parliament Bill No. 411 : Labeled as the “fourth districting proposal,” contributing to the 2025 efforts to redraw the parliamentary districts.
5. Parliament Bill No. 415 : The latest, or ” fifth districting bill, ” which proposes 32 single-member parliamentary districts as of November 2025.
The enactment of a Districting Law is crucial for defining electoral districts, enhancing representation, and ensuring that Bangsamoro constituents have a voice in governance. However, time is running out. The processes of consultation, public hearings, and legislative readings are lengthy, raising concerns about the BTA’s ability to meet the March deadline.
Additionally, the possibility of legislative delays complicates the situation. The Chief Minister has the authority to expedite the process by certifying a bill as urgent, but the political context may render such actions contentious. Will the BTA act decisively to prevent a political vacuum due to the failure to enact this essential legislation? The local political dynamics, characterized by competing interests among various factions, will significantly influence the BTA’s decisions in the lead-up to the election.
Moreover, Ed Kabalo’s ongoing petition to the Supreme Court introduces further uncertainty. His challenge questions the constitutionality of elections not aligned with the synchronization law. If the court rules against conducting elections under current conditions, a postponement will be inevitable, complicating an already delicate situation. The legal framework guiding the electoral process must be clear to avoid disruptions that could undermine the legitimacy of the elections and the government they produce.
Given these factors, it is vital for stakeholders in the Bangsamoro region to engage in open dialogue and collaboration. The BTA should prioritize enacting the Districting Law and addressing the Supreme Court petition’s outcomes through transparent communication with the public and political entities. Simultaneously, Bangsamoro communities must advocate for their interests to ensure their representation is not sidelined during this critical moment.
While Comelec’s decision to hold the election on March 30, 2026, is a significant step toward political maturity in the Bangsamoro region, it is fraught with risks that could lead to considerable setbacks. The effectiveness of the upcoming BTA decisions and the judiciary’s responses will ultimately shape the electoral landscape and determine the governance trajectory of the Bangsamoro.
The question being posed by the Bangsamoro people is who will benefit if the 1st Bangsamoro Parliamentary Election does not proceed as scheduled and instead is synchronized with the 2028 National and Local Elections. Your guess is as good as mine.
Allah knows best. (Note: This article is shared by BMN/BangsamoroToday with the author’s permission, Abdullah P. Salik, Jr.)
